Sportsbooks see UFC 331 as a card with one legitimate coin flip sitting at the very top and one heavyweight bout so lopsided it barely functions as a betting line. Everywhere in between sits a mix of solid-but-not-safe favorites and underdogs who are live for specific, identifiable reasons. None of the numbers below are a pick — they're a snapshot of where the market currently sits, worth reading as opinion rather than a forecast for Saturday.
What the Numbers Actually Mean
A moneyline with a minus sign shows how much money it takes to win $100 on the favorite. A moneyline with a plus sign shows what a $100 bet returns if the underdog wins. Converting either number into an implied probability is simple: for a favorite at -X, it's X ÷ (X + 100); for an underdog at +Y, it's 100 ÷ (Y + 100). The further a line sits from even money, the more lopsided the market thinks the fight is. How UFC betting odds work covers the format in more detail. None of this is advice — it's what bettors are currently saying about a 12-fight card before a single punch is thrown.
The Title Fight Is Closer Than You'd Expect
The Van vs. Pantoja rematch headlines the card, and the market treats it as close to even money: Joshua Van is a -132 favorite, which works out to a 56.9 percent implied chance of winning, against Alexandre Pantoja at +106, or 48.5 percent. That's a gap of roughly 8 points — genuinely tight, not a rounding error dressed up as a coin flip.
That number makes sense given what actually happened between them. Van has held the flyweight title for nine months, but their first meeting at UFC 323 lasted 26 seconds and ended on a scramble injury to Pantoja's arm rather than anything either man did on purpose. The market isn't pricing a beaten challenger — it's pricing a former two-time champion whose only competitive data point against the champion is essentially nonexistent. A slight edge to the younger, longer, harder-hitting titleholder is a reasonable read of a fight nobody has actually seen play out.
The Heaviest Favorite on the Card
At the opposite extreme sits Steveson vs. Sharaf. Gable Steveson is a -1600 favorite, an implied probability of 94.1 percent, over Sean Sharaf at +900, which comes out to 10.0 percent. That's the widest gap on the entire card by a large margin, and it's easy to see why: Steveson is an Olympic gold-medal wrestler who has finished all four of his professional fights by knockout, while Sharaf is 0-2 in the UFC with both of those losses coming by strikes.
A 94.1 percent favorite is about as close to a formality as a sportsbook will price a fight it's still willing to take action on. It doesn't mean Sharaf has no chance — every one of his four professional wins has also come by knockout, and "The Smoke" has never had a fight go to a decision, for or against him. A 10 percent live underdog with genuine one-punch power is still a live underdog; it just means the market thinks Steveson's wrestling closes that gap in the overwhelming majority of outcomes.
A Live Underdog With a Real Case
Not every wide-ish line is as clean as it looks. Baraniewski vs. Menifield has Iwo Baraniewski at -220 (68.8 percent implied) over Alonzo Menifield at +180 (35.7 percent implied) — a real favorite, but not remotely a lock. Baraniewski is undefeated at 9-0 with every win coming by finish, seven of them by strikes, and he's earned a Performance of the Night bonus in each of his three UFC fights. On paper that reads like a rout in the making.
But a 35.7 percent underdog is still expected to win better than one fight in three, and Menifield's résumé explains why the market isn't writing him off. He's a 38-year-old UFC veteran who has won three straight and finished 11 of his 18 career wins by knockout — but four of his six losses have also come by knockout, which is the actual reason this line isn't wider. Baraniewski has never faced anyone who hits like Menifield does, and Menifield has been finished by exactly that kind of power before. That's what a live underdog with a real path looks like, as opposed to a number that only exists because anything can theoretically happen.
A Crowd Favorite Priced as a Steep Underdog
Not every underdog gets that benefit of the doubt from the market. Tai Tuivasa opened as a +350 underdog to Robelis Despaigne's -500 on the prelims, which works out to a 22.2 percent implied chance for Tuivasa against an 83.3 percent implied chance for Despaigne. Tuivasa is one of the sport's most popular fighters, but he's lost seven of his last eight, and Despaigne stands five inches taller with a nine-inch reach advantage and a kickboxing-and-taekwondo background that has ended every one of his six pro wins by knockout. The market isn't pricing Tuivasa's popularity here — it's pricing a fighter on a historic skid walking into exactly the kind of length and power that has ended his recent fights before.
Why the Board Isn't a Prediction
Odds price recent form, physical tools and finishing paths, not storylines. That's why a former two-time champion like Pantoja can still be a slight underdog to a titleholder he's never actually lost to in a real fight, and why an 0-2 fighter like Sharaf can still carry live finishing equity despite a 94.1 percent favorite standing across the cage. None of these numbers account for an injury, an off night, or the single clean shot that erases every line on the page — and they'll keep moving between now and Saturday as more money comes in on each side.
The Takeaway
The clearest opinion the market holds on UFC 331 isn't about the title fight — it's about the heavyweight bout most fans will barely notice, where Steveson's 94.1 percent implied probability dwarfs everything else on the card. The actual main event, by contrast, is one of the tighter lines the sport will see all year, and the more interesting undercard numbers belong to fighters like Menifield, whose real finishing power keeps a 35.7 percent underdog line honest rather than decorative. Reading the board this way doesn't tell you who wins Saturday — it tells you where the money currently sees a gap, and where it genuinely doesn't.