Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaitė

UFC Fight Night · October 10, 2026 · Meta Apex · Prelims 5:00 PM ET

The brief

What kind of fight: Well-rounded veteran vs. heavy-handed striker
Finish likelihood: Medium
The line: Gatto -160 · Kareckaitė +135Consensus (multiple sportsbooks)
The stakes: Women's Flyweight · Prelims

The read

Gatto's betting-favorite status reflects her broader finishing toolkit across striking and grappling.

Kareckaitė's power is a real equalizer if she can keep the fight standing and find her shots early, but Gatto's experience against a deeper level of competition makes her the pick in a close fight.

The matchup

Melissa Gatto

Well-Rounded Finisher

Balanced finishing rate · One-fight skid · Toledo-born

GrapplingStriking

Ernesta Kareckaitė

Power Striker

UFC newcomer · One-fight skid · Two first-round finishes

GrapplingStriking

This late addition pairs two flyweights both trying to snap a decision loss, with Gatto's more varied finishing résumé against Kareckaitė's heavier hands.

Gatto has finished fights by strikes and by submission, giving her more routes to victory, while Kareckaitė's power has produced two first-round finishes and makes her dangerous in any standup exchange.

Tale of the tape

9-3-2	Record	6-2-1
30	Age	28
5'5"	Height	5'9"
69"	Reach	71"
Orthodox	Stance	Orthodox
Brazil	Country	Lithuania
Team Bronx Cascavel / Chute Boxe	Team	Fighters Land MMA

The numbers

Career UFC averages. Red bar = statistical edge.

Melissa GattoErnesta Kareckaitė

—Sig. strikes landed / min (volume)—

—Striking accuracy (precision)—

—Sig. strikes absorbed / min (lower is better)—

—Striking defense (strikes avoided)—

—Takedowns / 15 min (wrestling offense)—

—Takedown accuracy—

—Takedown defense—

—Submission attempts / 15 min—

The fighters

Melissa Gatto 9-3-2

Melissa Gatto is a 30-year-old Brazilian flyweight out of Toledo, Paraná, with a well-rounded finishing résumé split across three knockouts and four submissions in her nine career wins. She dropped a majority-decision loss to Dione Barbosa in April 2026 and now returns against UFC newcomer Ernesta Kareckaitė, added to the card in a newly confirmed women's flyweight bout.

How they win

3 KO/TKO4 SUB2 DEC

Last 3 fights

LDione Barbosa · Decision (majority)UFC Vegas 115 · April 4, 2026

Full Gatto profile →

Ernesta Kareckaitė 6-2-1

“Heavy-Handed”

Ernesta "Heavy-Handed" Kareckaitė is a 28-year-old Lithuanian flyweight training at Fighters Land MMA, with two of her six career wins coming by knockout. She dropped a unanimous-decision loss to Regina Tarin in February 2026 and now faces Brazilian veteran Melissa Gatto in a newly added bout for this card.

How they win

2 KO/TKO0 SUB4 DEC

Last 3 fights

LRegina Tarin · Decision (unanimous)UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · February 28, 2026
WNicolle Caliari · Decision (split)Regional MMA · January 11, 2025

Full Kareckaitė profile →

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