Francisco Prado vs. Ismael Bonfim
UFC Fight Night · October 10, 2026 · Meta Apex · Prelims 5:00 PM ET
The brief
- What kind of fight
- Two finishers both trying to snap a skid
- Finish likelihood
- High
- The line
- Prado +105 · Bonfim -125Consensus (multiple sportsbooks)
- The stakes
- Lightweight · Prelims
The read
Bonfim is the slight favorite given his finishing power on the feet and on the mat, but his recent chin questions after back-to-back knockout losses are a real concern against an opponent who has never needed the judges in his career.
Expect an aggressive, early-finish-minded fight from both men given the stakes.
The matchup
Both lightweights arrive in must-win territory, with Bonfim stepping in on short notice for an injured Artur Minev.
Prado has lost three straight by decision despite a finish-only record before the UFC, while Bonfim has lost his last two by strikes after building his career on finishing power of his own.
Whoever imposes their finishing instincts first likely settles this.
Tale of the tape
| 12-5 | Record | 20-7 |
| 24 | Age | 30 |
| 5'10" | Height | 5'8" |
| 69" | Reach | 71.5" |
| — | Stance | Orthodox |
| Argentina | Country | Brazil |
| American Top Team | Team | Bonfim Brothers |
The numbers
Career UFC averages. Red bar = statistical edge.
The fighters
Francisco Prado 12-5
Francisco Prado is a 24-year-old Argentine lightweight fighting out of American Top Team, signed by the UFC while still a teenager on the back of an unbeaten regional run split evenly between knockouts and submissions. All five of his career losses have come by decision against increasingly tested UFC opposition, most recently a unanimous-decision loss to Charles Radtke at UFC 327 in April 2026. He now looks for his first UFC win since 2023 against fellow finisher Ismael Bonfim.
- LCharles Radtke · Decision (unanimous)UFC 327 · April 11, 2026
- LNikolay Veretennikov · Decision (split)UFC 318 · July 19, 2025
- LJake Matthews · DecisionUFC 312 · February 8, 2025
Ismael Bonfim 20-7
“Marreta”
Ismael "Marreta" Bonfim is a 30-year-old Brazilian lightweight training with his brothers at Bonfim Brothers, with nine of his 20 career wins coming by knockout. He has dropped two straight, both by strikes, most recently a second-round TKO loss to Chris Padilla in November 2025, and steps in on short notice to replace Artur Minev against fellow finisher Francisco Prado.
- LChris Padilla · KO/TKOUFC Fight Night · November 9, 2025
- LNazim Sadykhov · KO/TKO (doctor stoppage)UFC Fight Night · February 16, 2025
- WVinc Pichel · Decision (unanimous)UFC Fight Night · May 4, 2024