Francis Marshall vs. Dakota Hope
UFC Fight Night · October 31, 2026 · Meta Apex · Prelims 5:00 PM ET
The brief
- What kind of fight
- Short-notice striker vs. submission grappler
- Finish likelihood
- Medium
- The line
- Marshall -290 · Hope +215FanDuel
- The stakes
- Featherweight · Prelims
The read
Marshall's wrestling and submission rate give him a real path to finish this on the mat against an opponent who had little time to prepare, and that short-notice disadvantage is the single biggest swing factor in the fight.
Hope's striking pressure makes him live if he can keep things standing early, but the weight cut and compressed camp are real question marks for a fighter already coming off a loss.
The matchup
Gaston Bolanos was forced out of this originally scheduled bout with a training cut to his eyebrow, bringing in Dakota Hope on short notice off his own split-decision loss to Kai Kamaka III in his UFC debut.
Hope's Muay Thai-based pressure striking gives him a route to keep this standing, but he is taking the fight on short notice and cutting down from lightweight against a grappler who has finished two of his last three wins.
Marshall's submission game is the clearest path to victory if he can close the distance before Hope settles in.
Tale of the tape
| 10-3 | Record | 11-2 |
| 27 | Age | 29 |
| 5'9" | Height | 5'6" |
| 72" | Reach | 68" |
| Orthodox | Stance | — |
| United States | Country | United States |
| — | Team | 4oz Fight Club |
The numbers
Career UFC averages. Red bar = statistical edge.
The fighters
Francis Marshall 10-3
“Fire”
Francis 'Fire' Marshall is a 27-year-old American featherweight, a former New Jersey firefighter whose 10-3 record is built primarily on submissions. He has won back-to-back fights since a split-decision loss to Mairon Santos, most recently a clean decision over Lucas Brennan in April 2026, and now faces short-notice replacement Dakota Hope after Gaston Bolanos withdrew with a training cut.
- WLucas Brennan · Decision (unanimous)UFC Fight Night · April 25, 2026
- WErik Silva · Submission (rear-naked choke)UFC Fight Night · February 28, 2026
- LMairon Santos · Decision (split)UFC 313 · March 8, 2025
Dakota Hope 11-2
Dakota Hope is a 29-year-old American lightweight-turned-featherweight who trains at 4oz Fight Club and carries an 11-2 professional record into his second UFC appearance. He lost his promotional debut by split decision to Kai Kamaka III at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan in April 2026 after winning the first round on all three scorecards. He now steps in on short notice to replace an injured Gaston Bolanos against Francis Marshall, cutting down from lightweight for the assignment.
- LKai Kamaka III · Decision (split)UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · April 4, 2026